For whom the bell tolls...?

I want to keep it short and sweet tonight. The big news of the hour is that Arlen Specter has "crossed the line"--officially. He shed his Republican affiliation once and for all and is now a Democrat.

His reasons are political, of course, as they usually are. He was sure he was going to get beaten in the Pennsylvania Republican primary by conservative Pat Toomey, and independents apparently do not win general elections in Pennsylvania. And, despite the support of the President, he might still have a run for his money in the Democratic primary. Labor will not look kindly upon his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act.

The implications, regardless of whether it is Specter or another player who wins the Democratic primary, are much broader than these individuals. The G.O.P. has just lost one of its only remaining moderates, at a time when the country is leaning further left than it has in decades. It does not even matter that his switch is largely for political reasons...those political reasons are very telling about the state of the Republican Party. The hardcore conservative base will flock to Toomey in the primary, but he would almost certainly lose the general election. Republicans continue to pander ever more to that extremist base--especially the religious right--and lose more and more moderates. In the latest poll only 21% of Americans identified themselves as Republicans. The more centrist Republicans that disappear from the ballots, the fewer Americans will identify themselves as such. It is the Incredible Shrinking Party.

The Democratic Party cannot and will not stay on top indefinitely. There will be a shift in public opinion, as there always is. But whether or not the Republicans as they are presenting themselves now can make themselves a viable competitor is a whole different ballgame. Prior to the 2008 election, I was getting increasingly fearful of the power of the religious right in politics--I don't plan on having an abortion any time soon, but I will certainly defend a woman's right to choose; I am not gay, but I absolutely support gay rights, including the right of any person to marry any other consenting adult they so wish; as a teacher in a public school and an atheist, I have no desire to impose my own beliefs (or lack thereof) on my students, but I also could not stomach the idea that any religious group should be able to. I was really starting to fear the direction of the country. The 2008 election shook all of that up, and finally gave me some hope and confidence that Americans were not really that crazy, ignorant and backward after all. Now, what becomes ever more apparent is that there is this minority, this fringe, that really and truly is crazier and more ignorant and backward than even I would believe possible--but, thankfully, they really are a minority, and they are basically out of power...at least for the time being.

The crumbling of the Republican Party is good news for those of us out here who want to see actual progress. I'm sure it will come back eventually--or a replacement--but let's hope that this experience in losing power teaches them, sooner or later, that when the country moves left, moving as far right as they possibly can is not the best policy.

For now, they don't seem to have gotten the memo.